Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas preview
Deportivo Garcilaso faces Club Deportivo Los Chankas with a 78% probability of winning, compared to just 7% for Los Chankas. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.71 for Garcilaso and 0.75 for Los Chankas.
While Garcilaso has shown better recent form with two wins in their last three matches, Los Chankas has struggled, recording only one win in their last six games. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%, and both teams to score is at 50%. If Los Chankas can improve their scoring, it could challenge the predicted outcome.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Garcilaso | Draw | Club Deportivo Los Chankas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Published | 68% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo Garcilaso below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Garcilaso, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.01 |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 6.18 | 6.35 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Garcilaso and Club Deportivo Los Chankas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Deportivo Garcilaso / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 1.24 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Deportivo Garcilaso / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 0.84 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Garcilaso goals. Columns: Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 68% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.07 | |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 13% | 7.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Garcilaso or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas) | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Garcilaso win by 2+ | 58% | 1.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Garcilaso and Club Deportivo Los Chankas recent form
Deportivo Garcilaso
3W 0D 3L
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Garcilaso at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-2-2
- Win rate
- 73%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-5
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Garcilaso at home only, Club Deportivo Los Chankas away only.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Deportivo Garcilaso 2 · draws 1 · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 0-1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-07-19 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 3-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-02-10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 2-2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
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- Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Cusco vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College 2026-10-25
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano 2026-10-25
- UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-10-25
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Before and after this match
- Deportivo Garcilaso, previous: FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction
- Deportivo Garcilaso, next: Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso: odds and pick
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas, previous: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs ADT prediction
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas, next: Club Deportivo Los Chankas – Cusco, 2026-10-28