Defensores De Belgrano vs San Miguel preview
Defensores De Belgrano has a 55% chance to win against San Miguel, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 16%. The expected goals show Defensores De Belgrano at 1.46 and San Miguel at 0.68, indicating a potential low-scoring match.
However, both teams to score is at 39%, and Over 2.5 goals is only 36%. San Miguel's recent form includes 4 games without a win, while Defensores De Belgrano has mixed results with 2 wins in their last 5. This could lead to an unexpected outcome, particularly if San Miguel improves their performance.
Defensores De Belgrano vs San Miguel: model vs market
| Source | Defensores De Belgrano | Draw | San Miguel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Defensores De Belgrano and San Miguel expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.14
- Attack rating (Defensores De Belgrano / San Miguel)
- 0.86 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Defensores De Belgrano / San Miguel)
- 1.11 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Defensores De Belgrano vs San Miguel score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Defensores De Belgrano goals. Columns: San Miguel goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Defensores De Belgrano vs San Miguel goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Defensores De Belgrano vs San Miguel
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensores De Belgrano | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| San Miguel | 16% | 6.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.56 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Defensores De Belgrano or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or San Miguel) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Defensores De Belgrano win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Defensores De Belgrano and San Miguel recent form
Defensores De Belgrano
2W 2D 2L
San Miguel
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Defensores De Belgrano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-5
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.76
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Miguel away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-9-7
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.41
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 6 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Defensores De Belgrano at home only, San Miguel away only.
Defensores De Belgrano vs San Miguel head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Defensores De Belgrano 1 · draws 2 · San Miguel 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | San Miguel | 0-0 | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
| 2018-04-06 | San Miguel | 0-0 | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera B Metropolitana |
| 2017-11-18 | Defensores De Belgrano | 3-0 | San Miguel | Primera B Metropolitana |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
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- Temperley v Chacarita Juniors — match page 2026-10-25
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Atlanta — match page 2026-10-25
- Atletico Mitre vs Godoy Cruz — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Central Norte vs Acassuso — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Deportivo Maipu vs Club Atlético Güemes 2026-10-25
- Midland vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Nueva Chicago v San Martin S.J. — match page 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Defensores De Belgrano, previous: San Telmo – Defensores De Belgrano, 2026-10-19
- Defensores De Belgrano, next: Colon Santa Fe vs Defensores De Belgrano: odds and pick
- San Miguel, previous: San Miguel v Ciudad de Bolívar analysis
- San Miguel, next: San Miguel v Deportivo Madryn analysis