Flamengo vs Atletico-MG preview
In the upcoming match between Flamengo and Atletico-MG, the 1X2 probabilities show Flamengo at 66% to win, while Atletico-MG stands at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Flamengo's expected goals are 1.52, compared to Atletico-MG's 0.78.
Flamengo's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 draws, while Atletico-MG has 4 wins and 2 draws. The head-to-head record favors Flamengo with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 win for Atletico-MG in their last 5 encounters. However, both teams to score is at 43%, which indicates that Atletico-MG could find the net, potentially impacting the match outcome.
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG: model vs market
| Source | Flamengo | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 28% | 15% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Published | 68% | 21% | 12% |
| Edge | -4% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.64.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flamengo, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.30 | 1.31 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 5.03 | 5.22 | +0.20 |
| Atletico-MG | 9.55 | 9.05 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Flamengo and Atletico-MG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Flamengo / Atletico-MG)
- 1.14 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Flamengo / Atletico-MG)
- 0.54 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Flamengo goals. Columns: Atletico-MG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Atletico-MG | 12% | 8.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.65 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Flamengo or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico-MG) | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Flamengo and Atletico-MG recent form
Flamengo
3W 3D 0L
Atletico-MG
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Flamengo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-1
- Win rate
- 73%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 19 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-8
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Flamengo at home only, Atletico-MG away only.
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Flamengo 3 · draws 1 · Atletico-MG 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Atletico-MG | 0-4 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-26 | Atletico-MG | 1-1 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-06 | Atletico-MG | 0-1 | Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2025-08-01 | Flamengo | 0-1 | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2025-07-27 | Flamengo | 1-0 | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Internacional v Botafogo — match page 2026-10-24
- Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Mirassol v Sao Paulo — match page 2026-10-24
- Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians 2026-10-24
- Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Santos v Bahia — match page 2026-10-25
- Coritiba vs Gremio 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Flamengo, previous: Flamengo – Estudiantes L.P., 2026-10-23
- Flamengo, next: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo prediction
- Atletico-MG, previous: Atletico Torque vs Atletico-MG: odds and pick
- Atletico-MG, next: Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro: odds and pick