Updated

Kenyan Premier League · Matchday 1

Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Homeboyz to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mombasa EliteDrawHomeboyz

Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMombasa EliteDrawHomeboyz
Model42%30%28%
Market32%31%38%
Published34%31%35%
Edge+10%-1%-9%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Homeboyz, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 2.31Now 2.39 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mombasa Elite3.002.84-0.16
Draw2.922.91-0.00
Homeboyz2.312.39+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mombasa Elite and Homeboyz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Mombasa Elite
1.07Homeboyz
Total expected goals
2.42
Attack rating (Mombasa Elite / Homeboyz)
1.16 / 1.08
Defence rating (Mombasa Elite / Homeboyz)
1.00 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 8.2% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 1 10.8% 14.1% 6.9% 2.4% 0.8% 2 8.1% 8.7% 4.6% 1.6% 0.6% 3 3.7% 3.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Mombasa Elite goals. Columns: Homeboyz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mombasa Elite34%2.93
Draw31%3.27
Homeboyz35%2.84
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.30
Under 2.557%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.00
No50%2.00
Double chance1X (Mombasa Elite or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or Homeboyz)66%1.52
Handicap -1Homeboyz win by 2+11%8.80
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mombasa Elite and Homeboyz recent form

Mombasa Elite 1W 0D 0L
Homeboyz 0W 3D 3L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match