Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe, the 1X2 probabilities show Galatasaray at 39% to win, while Fenerbahçe stands at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 6% chance. Galatasaray's expected goals are 1.66, compared to Fenerbahçe's 2.21, indicating a tighter contest than the scoreline suggests.
Both teams to score has a 73% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 74%, which points to a high-scoring match. However, Galatasaray's recent form, with three losses in their last six matches, could affect their performance. Fenerbahçe has shown more consistency, with four wins in their last six, which may tilt the match in their favor.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: model vs market
| Source | Galatasaray | Draw | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 21% | 45% |
| Market | 44% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Galatasaray, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 2.31 | 2.15 | -0.16 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.80 | +0.08 |
| Fenerbahçe | 3.04 | 2.94 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.26
- Attack rating (Galatasaray / Fenerbahçe)
- 1.37 / 1.47
- Defence rating (Galatasaray / Fenerbahçe)
- 1.27 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Galatasaray goals. Columns: Fenerbahçe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Galatasaray | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Fenerbahçe | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.28 |
| No | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Galatasaray or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Fenerbahçe) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Galatasaray win by 2+ | 18% | 5.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe recent form
Galatasaray
4W 0D 2L
Fenerbahçe
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Galatasaray at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fenerbahçe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Galatasaray at home only, Fenerbahçe away only.
Injuries & availability
Galatasaray absences
-
R. Leao
injury
Fenerbahçe absences
-
J. Oosterwolde
achilles tendon injury
-
M. Asensio
knee injury
- M. Muldur knee injury
- N. Ake muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Galatasaray 5 · draws 3 · Fenerbahçe 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Galatasaray | 3-0 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 2026-01-10 | Galatasaray | 0-2 | Fenerbahçe | Super Cup |
| 2025-12-01 | Fenerbahçe | 1-1 | Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| 2025-04-02 | Fenerbahçe | 1-2 | Galatasaray | Türkiye Kupası |
| 2025-02-24 | Galatasaray | 0-0 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 2024-09-21 | Fenerbahçe | 1-3 | Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| 2024-05-19 | Galatasaray | 0-1 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 2024-04-07 | Galatasaray | 1-0 | Fenerbahçe | Super Cup |
| 2023-12-24 | Fenerbahçe | 0-0 | Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| 2023-06-04 | Galatasaray | 3-0 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Samsunspor vs Amed 2026-10-24
- Konyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Göztepe v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-25
- Beşiktaş v Başakşehir — match page 2026-10-26
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Galatasaray, previous: Lille v Galatasaray analysis
- Galatasaray, next: Konyaspor vs Galatasaray prediction
- Fenerbahçe, previous: Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha, 2026-10-20
- Fenerbahçe, next: Fenerbahçe – Göztepe, 2026-10-31