Updated

Major League Soccer · Matchday 31

Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy

· Banc of California Stadium, Los Angeles· Referee Armando Villarreal

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Los Angeles FC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Los Angeles FCDrawLos Angeles Galaxy

Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLos Angeles FCDrawLos Angeles Galaxy
Model50%26%24%
Market61%21%18%
Published58%22%20%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.15.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Los Angeles FC, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.50Now 1.54 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Los Angeles FC1.501.54+0.04
Draw4.724.60-0.12
Los Angeles Galaxy5.385.25-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.73Los Angeles FC
1.15Los Angeles Galaxy
Total expected goals
2.88
Attack rating (Los Angeles FC / Los Angeles Galaxy)
0.83 / 1.05
Defence rating (Los Angeles FC / Los Angeles Galaxy)
0.80 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 5.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 1 8.6% 12.3% 6.4% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.4% 9.6% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.8% 5.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 3.1% 3.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Los Angeles FC goals. Columns: Los Angeles Galaxy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Los Angeles FC58%1.71
Draw22%4.55
Los Angeles Galaxy20%5.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.82
Under 2.545%2.22
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.74
No43%2.34
Double chance1X (Los Angeles FC or draw)80%1.24
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Los Angeles Galaxy)42%2.41
Handicap -1Los Angeles FC win by 2+28%3.62
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy recent form

Los Angeles FC 1W 3D 2L
Los Angeles Galaxy 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Los Angeles FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-3-3
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.93
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
8 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Los Angeles Galaxy away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-7
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.13
Clean sheets
1 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Los Angeles FC at home only, Los Angeles Galaxy away only.

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles FC absences

  • C. Carter arm injury
  • J. Ebobisse leg injury
  • T. Tillman pelvis injury

Los Angeles Galaxy absences

  • H. Lozano hamstring injury
  • I. Parente ankle injury
  • K. Furuhashi hamstring injury
  • R. Puig knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Los Angeles FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 H. Lloris
  2. 23 Y. Cheberko
  3. 33 A. Long
  4. 5 R. Porteous
  5. 14 Sergi Palencia
  6. 6 Igor Jesus
  7. 8 M. Delgado
  8. 9 A. Sieb
  9. 7 Son Heung-Min
  10. 81 L. Walta
  11. 99 D. Bouanga

Bench: E. Segura, T. Hasal, J. Ebobisse, J. Shaffelburg, T. Boyd, S. Vasquez, R. Hollingshead, M. Choinière, N. Tafari

Los Angeles Galaxy lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 J. Marcinkowski
  2. 14 J. Nelson
  3. 25 C. Garcés
  4. 15 J. Haak
  5. 26 Harbor Miller
  6. 17 P. Ruiz
  7. 6 Sergi Roberto
  8. 27 E. Thommy
  9. 21 R. Taylor
  10. 28 J. Paintsil

Bench: N. Mićović, Calegari, J. Aude, M. Yoshida, J. Glesnes, L. Sanabria, E. Wynder, T. Elgersma

Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Los Angeles FC 5 · draws 2 · Los Angeles Galaxy 3.

Los Angeles FCDrawsLos Angeles Galaxy
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-18Los Angeles Galaxy0-3Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
2025-07-20Los Angeles FC3-3Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
2025-05-19Los Angeles Galaxy2-2Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
2024-09-15Los Angeles Galaxy4-2Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
2024-07-05Los Angeles Galaxy1-2Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
2024-04-06Los Angeles FC2-1Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
2023-09-17Los Angeles FC4-2Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
2023-07-05Los Angeles Galaxy2-1Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
2023-05-24Los Angeles FC0-2Los Angeles GalaxyUS Open Cup
2023-04-16Los Angeles Galaxy2-3Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Before and after this match